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SPX finished the past week below its highs of 08/05/09 and 06/01/09. This means that price momentum is negative over the past 6 weeks and over the past 5 months. The last Tuesday breakdown of the trend line and today’s trading below the 903.78 (low of Wednesday 6/17/09) and closing on support line of 893, seems to shift SPX in a range back to previous month of 930-880.
The Monday`s fall down might signal tomorrow` s rally but for weekly outcome I will look for 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high.
Will take into consideration this week news on economic indicators:
Tuesday: May home sales
Wednesday: W/e 18/06 crude oil inventories; May durable goods orders; May new home sales ;
Thursday: final GDP for the first quarter; W/e 18/06 initial jobless claims;Friday: University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey; May personal income/spending
I sold SPX Jun 09 (Qtr) 875/850 put @ 4.20 and if break down the resistance of around 880-879 will sell one strike lower.
Potential Resistance:
R3: 931.12, high of 06/05/09
R2: 923.26, low of 01/6/09
R1: 903.78, low of 17/6/09
Potential Support:
S1: 893, low of 22/6/09
S2: 881.46, low of 26/5/09
S3: 879.61, low of 21/5/09
S4:878.94, low of 15/5/09
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